Alexander N. Poltavsky, Hakan Bozdo√Ą?an
The present study simulates degradation of pesticides in the soil of the apple orchard based on a half-life of active ingredients. Throughout the paper, pesticide degradation is described by exponential regression equations. The calculation of the content of active substances has been carried out in dynamics during one year for two pest control system models, which involve 11 active ingredients − insecticides and fungicides. Model ??? 1 differs in one insecticide, flubendiamide, which is replaced by dimethoate in Model ??? 2. Furthermore, the toxic hazard assessment of those two models is carried out according to non-parametric Argo-Eco-Toxicological Index (AETI). If AETI>0.5 then toxication is estimated to be dangerous for the environment. In designed models duration of dangerous soil intoxication level decreases by 3.2 times due to replacement of flubendiamide by dimethoate. In this respect, the proposed prognostic mathematical method in the present study can be successfully used while choosing the safest pest control system.